FEASIBILITY REPORT: MARKET DEMAND FOR JJIL’S BLACK-BODY RADIATION DEHYDRATOR AND MULTI-FUEL FISH AND MEAT DRYERS IN NIGERIA – PART 3

8. Adoption barriers and risks

Economic barriers:

·         Upfront purchase price and limited access to credit.

·         Uncertain throughput and seasonal use.

·         Cost of fuel, electricity, packaging, labour, transport, and repairs.

·         Difficulty securing enough raw material at a viable price.

·         Uncertain buyer demand and product prices.

·         Foreign-exchange exposure for imported parts, if applicable.

·         Technical and operational barriers

·         Inconsistent drying results across batches.

·         Poor performance in high humidity or under heavy loading.

·         Lack of spare parts and trained technicians.

·         Equipment downtime during peak harvest periods.

·         Complex operation or cleaning requirements.

·         Inadequate safety features or unclear fuel-conversion procedures.

Market barriers:

·         Consumer preference for fresh or traditionally processed products.

·         Limited awareness of dried-product applications.

·         Unfamiliar packaging or weak branding.

·         Buyer concerns about quality, safety, traceability, or consistency.

·         Competition from established processors and imported products.

Food-safety and regulatory risks

·         Contamination before, during, or after drying.

·         Inadequate control of moisture, water activity, and storage conditions.

·         Poor hygiene, pest control, or packaging.

·         Misleading shelf-life or health claims.

·         Failure to meet applicable registration, labelling, or standards requirements.

Climate and supply-chain risks

·         Floods, drought, heat, and changing harvest patterns.

·         Seasonal shortages or sudden gluts.

·         Poor roads and transport disruption.

·         Insecurity in some production and market areas.

 

9. Commercial feasibility and customer economics

A buyer’s decision should be assessed using a per-batch and annual operating model, not only the equipment price. JJIL should collect data for each target commodity and location.

Core calculations

Usable output per batch
= Raw material loaded × finished-product yield

Contribution per batch
= Revenue from finished product − raw-material cost − fuel/electricity − labour − packaging − transport − other variable costs

Annual operating surplus
= Total annual contribution − maintenance − rent or facility costs − financing costs − other fixed costs

Simple payback period
= Installed equipment cost ÷ annual net cash benefit

The calculation should compare the dryer with the customer’s current alternative, such as sun drying, smoking, cold storage, or immediate sale. It should include:

·         Purchase and installation price.

·         Capacity and realistic annual utilisation.

·         Raw-material purchase price and seasonal variation.

·         Product yield and rejected-product rate.

·         Fuel or electricity use per kilogram of output.

·         Labour, packaging, transport, and maintenance.

·         Selling price and sales volume by product.

·         Financing cost and repayment schedule.

·         Value of losses avoided, measured rather than assumed.

JJIL should avoid presenting a single payback estimate for all customers. Economics will differ by commodity, location, fuel availability, season, scale, and market.

 

10. Market validation plan

A focused validation programme is recommended before large-scale expansion.

Phase 1: Technical verification

·         Conduct controlled tests with representative commodities. Record:

·         Raw and finished weights.

·         Initial and final moisture content, and water activity where relevant.

·         Drying time, temperature profile, and batch loading.

·         Fuel or electricity consumption.

·         Product quality, colour, texture, taste, and contamination indicators.

·         Performance under different weather and loading conditions.

·         Cleaning, maintenance, and downtime.

Use an independent food-processing or engineering institution where feasible. Publish results with the test conditions and limitations.

Phase 2: Customer discovery

·         Interview and observe at least:

·         Fish processors and traders.

·         Farmer groups and cooperatives.

·         Small food manufacturers.

·         Market aggregators.

·         Women-led and youth-led enterprises.

·         Relevant extension officers, NGOs, and public programmes.

Ask about current preservation methods, annual volumes, seasonal losses, energy costs, selling prices, buyer requirements, willingness to pay, and financing preferences.

Phase 3: Paid pilot installations

Install a small number of units in different operating environments. Prefer pilots where users contribute financially or pay for processing services; this provides a stronger demand signal than donated equipment alone.

Track for at least one full production cycle:

·         Utilisation rate.

·         Number and size of batches.

·         Downtime and repair incidents.

·         Cost per kilogram processed.

·         Product rejection rates.

·         Sales and repeat orders.

·         Customer satisfaction and willingness to recommend.

·         Women’s and young people’s participation in paid roles.

Phase 4: Commercial decision

Expand only when pilots show that:

The equipment performs consistently.

Customers can achieve positive operating economics.

There is repeat demand for the dried products or processing service.

Local technicians and spare parts are available.

Food-safety procedures and packaging are workable.

Financing and after-sales arrangements are in place.

 

11. Recommended business and sales model

JJIL should offer more than equipment. A complete adoption package could include:

·         Equipment sales and installation.

·         Operator and food-safety training.

·         Preventive maintenance and repair services.

·         Spare parts and warranty support.

·         Packaging and product-development guidance.

·         Buyer introductions and market-access support.

·         Pay-per-use or toll-drying services.

·         Lease-to-own, cooperative, or asset-finance arrangements.

·         Community processing-centre management support.

For customers unable to purchase a dryer outright, a service-centre model may be more practical: JJIL or a local partner owns the equipment and charges per kilogram, batch, or processing hour. This lowers the customer’s entry cost while allowing JJIL to earn recurring service revenue—provided the facility secures sufficient throughput.

 

12. Inclusion, jobs, and worker safety

JJIL’s plan to train women and young people can strengthen adoption and local economic impact if it is linked to real operating roles and market demand. Training should cover:

·         Safe equipment operation and approved fuel use.

·         Food hygiene, sanitation, and pest control.

·         Drying, cooling, sorting, and packaging.

·         Basic maintenance and fault reporting.

·         Recordkeeping, costing, and inventory.

·         Marketing, customer service, and sales.

Jobs should be paid, safe, and clearly defined. Facilities should provide appropriate protective equipment, ventilation, fire precautions, safe fuel storage, clean water, sanitation, and accessible reporting procedures. Training and certification claims should specify the curriculum, assessment, duration, and issuing body.